Strategic Analysis of the Transformation of Ukraine’s Defense Industry Under the Influence of Military Threats and Global Technological Changes
Abstract
Purpose. To provide a scientific substantiation and systematization of external and internal environmental factors of the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex (DIC) to develop an adaptive strategic planning system based on a cognitive approach and intelligent technologies.
Method. A complex of strategic analysis tools was applied: an adapted M. Porter’s “Five Forces” model for microenvironment analysis, SWOT analysis to identify DIC opportunities and threats, and methods of cognitive and logical-linguistic modeling to formalize decision-making processes of the management subject.
Findings. A detailed classification of external DIC environmental factors under martial law was conducted; attributive and relational parameters of enterprise microenvironments were identified; threats to industry functioning were systematized. The feasibility of implementing Decision Support Systems (DSS) based on Industry 4.0 technologies (ERP, MES, AI) and using backward logical inference for designing the "future model" of the enterprise was justified.
Theoretical implications. The work deepens the theory of adaptive management through the introduction of a cognitive approach to the analysis of the conceptosphere and knowledge ontology in the DIC sphere. The essence of “attributive” and “relational” concepts is clarified as the basis for creating digital twins of complex industrial systems.
Practical implications. The results allow DIC enterprises to transition from directive to adaptive planning, ensuring the resilience of production cycles to external shocks. The proposed algorithms facilitate automated interaction with customers, cost optimization, and effective diversification of activities.
Originality. For the first time, an original systematization of microenvironment parameters of the Ukrainian DIC was conducted, considering the specifics of martial law and DefenseTech clusters, which allowed for combining classical strategic management methods with end-to-end digital technologies (AI, Big Data, cognitive modeling).
Research limitations. Limitations relate to the high dynamics of changes in the regulatory environment for defense procurement and the difficulty of formalizing the subjective mental models of decision-makers.
Paper type. Research.
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References
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Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. (2020). Zakon Ukrainy “Pro oboronni zakupivli” [Law of Ukraine “On Defense Procurement”]. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/808-20
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