The Methodological Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Military-Economic Forecasting under Conditions of Instability in the Military-Political Environment
Abstract
Purpose. To develop a methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness of military-economic forecasting that accounts for instability in the military-political environment and improves the justification of managerial decisions in the defence sector.
Method. The study employs theoretical methods of analysis, synthesis, abstraction, and systematization; statistical and comparative analysis; expert assessment; the weighted sum method; functional modelling; integral assessment; and a scenario-based approach.
Findings. A methodological approach has been developed that involves constructing an integral index of instability in the military-political environment and establishing functional relationships between instability, the state’s resource capabilities, and military needs. An integral indicator of forecasting effectiveness is proposed, combining measures of accuracy, adaptability, variability, and resource adequacy.
Theoretical implications. The theoretical foundations of military-economic forecasting are advanced by integrating forecasting theory, systems analysis, and decision-making theory under conditions of uncertainty.
Practical implications. The proposed approach can be applied by military command and control bodies to assess forecast quality, substantiate resource allocation, and support managerial decision-making in defence planning.
Future research. Further research should focus on improving methods for formalizing functional relationships, expanding the information base, and developing software tools to automate military-economic forecasting and the assessment of its effectiveness.
Paper type. Theoretical article.
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