Investigation of a Sniper Fire-Mission Execution Model with Restrictions on Collateral Injury to Bystanders
Abstract
Purpose. To analyse a sniper fire-mission execution model for security forces under the constraint of preventing collateral injury to bystanders and to determine how key shooting parameters influence the probability of successful mission accomplishment.
Method. The study employs mathematical modelling, parametric analysis, numerical calculations, comparative analysis, and graphical interpretation of the obtained relationships. The effects of shooting accuracy, target distance, aiming point displacement, and the number of shots on mission effectiveness are investigated.
Findings. The aiming point position and the number of shots were identified as the most controllable factors affecting mission effectiveness. Improved shooting accuracy and reduced engagement distance increase the probability of successful mission accomplishment. An asymmetric effect of aiming point displacement was revealed, and an optimal number of shots that maximises the overall probability of mission success was determined.
Theoretical implications. The study advances mathematical models for evaluating sniper fire-mission effectiveness by incorporating the criterion of bystander safety into the assessment framework.
Practical implications. The findings can be applied to sniper training, aiming point selection, determination of the optimal number of shots, and the justification of technical requirements for sniper weapon systems.
Originality/value. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of a fire-mission execution model that simultaneously accounts for target engagement effectiveness and bystander safety.
Limitations/Future research. The model is based on predefined tactical conditions and does not account for the dynamics of real combat environments. Future research should focus on experimental validation of the model and its extension to incorporate additional operational risk factors.
Paper type. Theoretical article.
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References
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