Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ as a Military, Economic and Environmental Threat to the Black Sea

Abstract

Purpose. To analyse the military, economic, and environmental threats posed by Russia's shadow fleet in the Black Sea region, assess its role in circumventing international sanctions and financing military operations, and identify approaches to countering this phenomenon.

Method. The study employs a qualitative research design based on document analysis, case study methodology, comparative analysis, and qualitative content analysis of reports produced by international organisations, government institutions, analytical centres, and expert sources.

Findings. The findings demonstrate that Russia's shadow fleet has become a key instrument for sustaining energy export revenues despite international sanctions. Its activities weaken sanctions, increase military, maritime, and environmental risks, and may facilitate hybrid operations against critical infrastructure. The operation of ageing and poorly regulated tankers significantly increases the likelihood of maritime accidents and environmental disasters, while existing international legal and institutional mechanisms remain insufficient to address these challenges effectively.

Theoretical implications. The study advances understanding of the shadow fleet as a multidimensional security phenomenon by integrating military, economic, environmental, and legal perspectives.

Practical implications. The findings support the development of more effective monitoring, sanctions enforcement, maritime surveillance, environmental protection, and critical infrastructure security measures.

Value. The study offers a comprehensive assessment of Russia's shadow fleet as an instrument of hybrid influence and identifies key challenges for international security.

Paper type. Theoretical.