System Modeling of the Demand for Military Lawyers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine Under Martial Law
Abstract
Purpose. To develop a normative-econometric model for forecasting the demand for military lawyers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine based on a systems approach and taking into account legal workload factors under martial law.
Method. The study is theoretical and analytical in nature. It employs a systems approach, normative method, statistical analysis, normative-econometric modelling, and scenario forecasting. The information base consists of open data from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, the Unified State Register of Court Decisions, the International Criminal Court, and the European Court of Human Rights.
Findings. The study demonstrates that the demand for military lawyers should be determined not by peacetime staffing structures but by the actual volume of legal cases, the labour intensity of legal support, and the characteristics of the security environment. The calculations indicate that the objective demand of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2025–2026 amounts to approximately 1,800–1,900 military lawyers. Scenario forecasting up to 2030 identifies a possible range of personnel demand from 500 to 4,000 lawyers.
Theoretical implications. The study advances methodological approaches to forecasting personnel requirements in the military legal domain.
Practical implications. The proposed model may be used for personnel planning and for substantiating state orders for the training of military lawyers.
Originality/value. A normative-econometric model for forecasting the demand for military lawyers under martial law is proposed for the first time.
Limitations/Future research. Further research should focus on refining workload standards and expanding the empirical database.
Paper type: Theoretical and analytical study.
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References
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