The State of Russia's Economic Development in the Context of Full-Scale Aggression Against Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of this study is a systematic analysis of the transformations that took place in the economy of the Russian Federation in the period from 2022 to 2025 as a result of the full-scale war against Ukraine.
Method. The study uses systemic and interdisciplinary approaches that combine elements of macroeconomic analysis, political economy, military economics and sanctions policy.
Findings. developing specific, innovative recommendations for governments, international organizations and other stakeholders that can be implemented to maximize efforts to put economic pressure on the russian federation.
Theoretical implications. The results of the study complement the existing theoretical research in the field of development of the military-industrial complex, and also take into account the practical experience of the russian-Ukrainian war.
Practical implications. The study will help to deepen the understanding of the impact of military conflicts on the country's economy, in particular, on its macroeconomic indicators, financial sector, foreign economic relations, social sphere and other aspects.
Originality/Value. The results of the study can help governmental institutions and international organizations in developing and adapting economic policies and strategies aimed at maximizing economic pressure on the russian federation to reduce its ability to meet military needs.
Research limitations/Future research. is to provide specific tools and recommendations that can be used by various stakeholders to maximize economic pressure on the russian economy to reduce its economic capacity to meet military needs.
Downloads
References
Trading Economics. Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate. Available from : https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp (Дата звернення: 16.07.2025).
International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024. Available from : https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April (Дата звернення: 16.07.2025).
Reuters. Putin’s economic resilience rests on war addiction / by Pierre Briançon // Reuters Breakingviews. – 2024. – Oct. 15. Available from : https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/putins-economic-resilience-rests-war-addiction-2024-10-15/ (Дата звернення: 16.07.2025).
FocusEconomics. Russia: GDP growth slows in early 2024. Available from : https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/russia (Дата звернення: 16.07.2025).
Bruegel. The Russian war economy: macroeconomic performance / by Maria Demertzis, Niclas Poitiers. – 2024. Available from : https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/russian-war-economy-macroeconomic-performance (Дата звернення: 16.07.2025).
The Guardian. What have three years of Putin’s war done to both nations’ economies? – 2025. – Feb. 22. Available from : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/22/what-have-three-years-of-putins-war-done-to-both-nations-economies (Дата звернення: 19.07.2025).
CEIC Data. Russia – Economic Indicators by Sector. Available from : https://www.ceicdata.com/en/country/russia (Дата звернення: 20.07.2025).
Trading Economics. Russia GDP Annual Growth Rate. Available from : https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp (Дата звернення: 22.07.2025).
Trading Economics. Russia Inflation Rate – annual CPI. Available from : https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi (Дата звернення: 25.07.2025).
Russian oil price in roubles has stayed below the 2025 budget target. Available from : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-price-roubles-has-stayed-below-2025-budget-target-2025-07-16/ (Дата звернення: 20.07.2025).
Ekonomichna pravda. Rosiya zakinchyla 2024 rik z rekordnym defitsytom byudzhetu – rosZMI. Available from : https://www.epravda.com.ua/finances/dira-v-byudzheti-rf-vstanovila-rekordniy-rozmir-802270/ (Дата звернення: 29.07.2025).
Reuters. Russia’s Q1 budget deficit narrows to 1% of GDP / Apr 8, 2025. Available from : https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-q1 budget deficit narrows 1 gdp 2025 04 08/ (Дата звернення: 30.07.2025).
Reuters. Russian January–April budget deficit widens to 1.5% of GDP / May 7, 2025. Available from : https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian january april budget deficit widens 15 gdp 2025 05 07/ (Дата звернення: 23.07.2025).
Reuters. Russia budget deficit reaches 2025 target level of 1.7% GDP in first half of year / Jul 7, 2025. Available from : https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia budget deficit reaches 2025 target level 17 gdp first half year 2025 07 07/ (Дата звернення: 15.07.2025).
Osiński, T. Russia’s Budget 2025: War Above All / Tadeusz Osiński // OSW Commentary. – 2024. – No. 566. – 22 November. Available from : https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-11-22/russias-budget-2025-war-above-all (Дата звернення: 17.07.2025).
CEIC Data. Russia: Consolidated Fiscal Balance (% of Nominal GDP). Available from : https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/consolidated-fiscal-balance--of-nominal-gdp (Дата звернення: 02.08.2025).
FocusEconomics. Russia: Fiscal Balance (% of GDP). Available from : https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/fiscal-balance/ (Дата звернення: 10.08.2025).
GlobalData. The Unemployment Rate of Russia, 2021 г., 2024. Available from : https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/the-unemployment-rate-of-russia-220152/?utm_source=chatgpt.com (Дата звернення: 09.08.2025).
FocusEconomics. Russia Unemployment Outlook & Estimate, 2024. Available from : https://www.focus economics.com/country indicator/russia/unemployment/ (Дата звернення: 12.08.2025).
Trading Economics. Russia Unemployment Rate, May 2025. Available from : https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/wages (Дата звернення: 14.08.2025).
Financial Times. Russia's surprising consumer spending boom / FT News, 10.07.2024. Available from : https://www.ft.com/content/3e2b2e63-082e-4058-ba92-dea580d4f40c (Дата звернення: 15.08.2025).
Russia Exports 1960–2025. Available from : https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/rus/russia/exports (Дата звернення: 03.08.2025).
Trading Economics. Russia Exports. Available from : https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports (Дата звернення: 12.08.2025).
Re:Russia. Export Without Innovation: The Changing Structure of Russia’s Trade Balance / Re:Russia Analytics, Policy & Ideas for Modernization. – 2024. – 16 February. Available from : https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/0244/ (Дата звернення: 15.08.2025).
Tridge. The Share of Grain in the Export of Agricultural Products in Russia. Available from : https://www.tridge.com/news/the-share-of-grain-in-the-export-of-agricult-bqykxh (Дата звернення: 10.08.2025).
Emerald Insight. Russia’s Grain Exports from Black Sea Ports in 2025 / Oxford Analytica Daily Brief Service. Available from : https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/oxan-db291434/full/html (Дата звернення: 11.08.2025).
The Washington Post. Russia Uses Black Sea to Export Food Amid Ukraine War. – 25.03.2025. Available from : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/03/25/russia-ukraine-black-sea-exports/ (Дата звернення: 05.08.2025).
TAdviser. Export of Food and Agricultural Raw Materials from Russia. Available from : https://tadviser.com/index.php/Article:Export_of_food_and_agricultural_raw_materials_from_Russia (Дата звернення: 06.08.2025).
Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty. Ukraine Accuses Russia Of Stealing Grain From Occupied Territories And Exporting It As Its Own. Available from : https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-war-occupation-grain-shipments/33004062.html (Дата звернення: 08.08.2025).
Rail Insider. З початку повномасштабної війни РФ вивезла 15 млн т зерна з окупованих територій. Available from : https://www.railinsider.com.ua/z-pochatku-povnomasshtabnoyi-vijny-rf-vyvezla-15-mln-t-zerna-z-okupovanyh-terytorij/ (Дата звернення: 01.08.2025).
Abstract views: 23 PDF Downloads: 30
Copyright (c) 2025 Mykola Tkach, Mykola Khomik, Ivan Tkach, Tetiana Cherneha, Dmytro Drynov
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors agree with the following conditions:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication (Download agreement) with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors have the right to complete individual additional agreements for the non-exclusive spreading of the journal’s published version of the work (for example, to post work in the electronic repository of the institution or to publish it as part of a monograph), with the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. Journal’s politics allows and encourages the placement on the Internet (for example, in the repositories of institutions, personal websites, SSRN, ResearchGate, MPRA, SSOAR, etc.) manuscript of the work by the authors, before and during the process of viewing it by this journal, because it can lead to a productive research discussion and positively affect the efficiency and dynamics of citing the published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
