Systemic prerequisites for assessing threats to critical energy infrastructure facilities in the context of armed conflict in Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose: is to develop approaches to the systematic assessment of threats and risks for objects of critical energy infrastructure in the conditions of the armed conflict in Ukraine.
Method: the theory of stochastic processes and system analysis is used.
Practical implications: The proposed approach to the systematic assessment of threats and risks for critical energy infrastructure facilities in conditions of armed conflict. This approach involves considering the military-technological security of the critical energy infrastructure system as a stochastic system that can be in three states. Using the «states and transitions» graph, a system of differential equations (Kolmogorov) was compiled for the rates («speed in time») of changing state probabilities when changing states with known rates of transitions. Solving this system of equations, taking into account the conditions of «stationarity» of the process of transitions and the «completeness» of a given set of states for their probability, made it possible to obtain the probabilities of the system being in each of the states, the mathematical expectation of the losses averted by the military-technological security system and the losses caused to the system, that is, the potential and real «risk».
Future research: further research should be directed to systematic studies of the assessment of threats and risks to the system of critical energy infrastructure in the aspect of military-technological security of the defense forces of Ukraine.
Paper type: theoretical.
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References
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