Specific structural and logical model of emergency management

Abstract

The work is devoted to solving one of the specific aspects of managing terrorist emergencies – an urgent scientific problem of our time. To achieve this goal, the work initially provides an analysis of the stages of development of emergency situations. It is shown that emergencies are objective (existing regardless of the attitude towards them) spatio-temporal processes, each of which is conventionally divided into five stages, namely: everyday accumulation of negative factors; extreme development of a negative factor; catastrophic event; elimination of the consequences of this event and their remote consequences. They occur in vehicles, man-made and natural objects, areas of the territory, water basins and mountains, cities and administrative regions. The type of each emergency is tied to a certain catastrophic event that can happen, is happening or has already happened. Then a prototype is considered - a typical structural - logical model of emergency management, which consists of six blocks. This is monitoring the situation (collecting everyday factors), identifying risk (detecting an extreme factor), analyzing risk (forecasting and modeling an emergency), preparing options for management decisions, making a decision and communicating it to executors. The subsequent impact on the situation (control object), through the structure of performers, closes the control loop, providing a continuous control process in the interests of preventing catastrophic events. On the basis of the prototype, a specific structural and logical model for managing an emergency of a terrorist nature caused by the detection of a small explosive device has been developed. It consists of thirteen blocks. This is situation monitoring, risk identification, warning and evacuation of people, search and identification of an explosive device, an explosive device, a dummy, a safe object, making a decision to use a special dome, preparatory measures, neutralizing an explosive device, localizing the consequences of neutralization, making a decision to resume and the work of the object, the impact on the situation. The location of the blocks at ten hierarchical levels, connected by logical links, provides the collection of information about the state of the object of a mass gathering of people through the elements of the monitoring system and impact on the object through the system of executors, providing a continuous management process in the interests of minimizing the consequences of terrorist events.